Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd949…228a politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$3
sports 22% −$2
other 15% $0
world 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -5.7% -14.7% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -7.7% -16.5% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 40 -4.6% -13.7% 18% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage233d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 30 $103 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -21%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $206 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1 $0 -35%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $211 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $105 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $212 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $1 $0 -33%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 10 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $2 $0 -20%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $99 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 17d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 20d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 23d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 100¢ $103 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 194 history records