Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd94a…2728 crypto 643 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,987 (-8%) realized −$2,935 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%172W / 466L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$540
7 days+$549
14 days+$549
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$352
sports 11% −$1,152
other 4% −$788
economics 1% −$230
weather 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +3.5% -6.4% 36% 28% -0.4%
≤30d 147 +6.5% -3.7% 35% 28% -3.6%
≤90d 192 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 23% -11.4%
all 638 -3.7% -12.9% 27% 23% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 23% -16.6%
10% -21.2% 20% -24.5%
15% -28.8% 16% -31.8%
20% -35.8% 14% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$49 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$2,935
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses172 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)638 / 643
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) DR Congo 2¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) DR Congo 0¢ 0¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+51%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $132 +$557 +421%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$86 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$212 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$30 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $161 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$26 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$31 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$41 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$54 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$11 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 0¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 7m
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 0¢ $5 8m
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 2¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $285 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $68 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $315 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.67 · official $56.45 · 3500 history records