Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd950…ad1b world 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$25,898 (+18%) realized +$26,258 · open −$360
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%139W / 45L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$584per market
Trades / day131.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$9,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$916
7 days+$8,681
14 days+$9,199
30 days+$17,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$14,489
other 6% +$1,193
crypto 4% +$1,011
finance 2% +$847
politics 2% +$195
sports 1% +$71
culture 1% −$340
tech 0% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +24.0% +12.2% 81% 51% +1.1%
≤30d 184 +82.3% +64.9% 76% 47% +3.0%
≤90d 184 +82.3% +64.9% 76% 47% +3.0%
all 184 +82.3% +64.9% 76% 47% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.9% 47% +3.0%
10% +49.1% 29% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here +34.7% 22% -15.8%
20% +21.5% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$660) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +147% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$76 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.27 per $1 lost it wins $6.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$9,882
Realized+$26,258
Unrealized−$360
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses139 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions107
Markets (closed)184 / 251
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$584
Trades / day131.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 67¢ 71¢ $943 $994 +$51 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $772 $770 −$2 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $586 $608 +$21 (+4%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $609 $596 −$13 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $447 $455 +$8 (+2%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 43¢ 36¢ $407 $337 −$70 (-17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $334 $335 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 78¢ $302 $314 +$12 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $279 $289 +$10 (+4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 87¢ $260 $283 +$23 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 75¢ 61¢ $270 $220 −$50 (-19%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? No 91¢ 96¢ $187 $198 +$10 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 68¢ $169 $190 +$21 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $181 $183 +$2 (+1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 32¢ 50¢ $120 $183 +$63 (+53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $156 $179 +$23 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $270 $176 −$94 (-35%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $153 $169 +$16 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 82¢ 84¢ $163 $168 +$4 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $168 $150 −$18 (-11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 50¢ $126 $148 +$22 (+18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 46¢ $163 $139 −$23 (-14%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 68¢ $140 $137 −$3 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $129 $136 +$7 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will another country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $124 +$106 +86%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $480 +$11 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $290 +$86 +30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$105 +251%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $483 +$48 +10%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 +$14 +117%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $176 +$24 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 +$142 +144%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $77 +$163 +212%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $105 +$12 +11%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $194 +$154 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$124 +163%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1,052 +$82 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $67 +$6 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $636 +$89 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $598 +$29 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $8 +$5 +60%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$150 +300%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,702 +$352 +21%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $184 +$16 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,925 +$887 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 +$46 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6,405 +$1,020 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,345 +$442 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $262 +$78 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,051 +$374 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $247 +$81 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $1,277 −$16 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 14 $103 +$22 +21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4,876 −$502 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,279 +$443 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3,123 +$103 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $72 +$78 +108%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $5,051 +$945 +19%
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $660 +$68 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $3,992 −$214 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $172 +$28 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $440 +$35 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $1,045 +$72 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $191 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $44 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $16 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $6 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $4 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $5 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 97¢ $3 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 92¢ $51 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $3 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $29 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 94¢ $2 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 94¢ $4 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 94¢ $7 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 94¢ $31 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 96¢ $96 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $170 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 80¢ $80 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $126 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $140 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 75¢ $225 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $100 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $6 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $4 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $0 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $4 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $92 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $3 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,882.09 · official $9,881.51 (match) · 3500 history records