Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D9 0xd953…a9c0 sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,314 (+18%) realized +$4,954 · open +$360

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR74%break-even

Win rate74%17W / 6L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$1,127per market

Trades / day22.4pace

Fees−$286est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +74%

net ROI/market (all)-0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+9.8%	-0.7%	74%	74%	+8.5%
≤30d	23	+9.8%	-0.7%	74%	74%	+8.5%
≤90d	23	+9.8%	-0.7%	74%	74%	+8.5%
all	23	+9.8%	-0.7%	74%	74%	+8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.4 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-0.7%	74%	+8.5%
10%	-10.2%	57%	-1.9%
15% ← realistic here	-18.9%	43%	-11.4%
20%	-26.8%	30%	-20.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,503) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -2% → late +21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$454 vs −$419 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$2,533

Realized+$4,954

Unrealized+$360

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses17 / 6

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$286

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,127

Trades / day22.4

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	39¢	40¢	$1,493	$1,532	+$38 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	77¢	100¢	$538	$700	+$162 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	47¢	100¢	$142	$301	+$160 (+113%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$425	+$212	+50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$591	+$309	+52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$289	+$211	+73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$4,352	+$1,311	+30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$15	+$17	+109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$304	−$300	-99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$1,095	+$1,516	+138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$328	+$66	+20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$116	−$114	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$730	+$270	+37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$700	−$529	-76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$5,840	+$992	+17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$291	−$290	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$1,503	+$869	+58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$517	−$510	-99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 15	$477	+$119	+25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$780	−$770	-99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$1,775	+$682	+38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$315	+$185	+58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$1,700	+$300	+18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$2,708	+$292	+11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$353	+$147	+42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$957	+$218	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	23m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	23m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$112	23m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$582	39m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$35	52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$10	52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$98	52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	66¢	$327	59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	59¢	$299	1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL Yes	38¢	$312	1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$67	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	70¢	$141	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	70¢	$68	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	77¢	$774	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$11	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$108	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$52	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$171	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL Yes	39¢	$95	2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$60	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	63¢	$137	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	59¢	$299	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	57¢	$4	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	57¢	$73	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	57¢	$49	3h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$28	3h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$7	4h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$16	4h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$668	4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	68¢	$412	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,532.58 · official $2,532.58 (match) · 159 history records