Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd956…dada sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized +$41 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$53
14 days+$40
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$14
sports 32% +$158
world 8% −$124
crypto 3% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 29% -13.7%
≤30d 91 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 92 -3.0% -12.2% 22% 22% -9.0%
all 92 -3.0% -12.2% 22% 22% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 22% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 21% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 21% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$15 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 72
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)92 / 101
History coverage47d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $102 $87 −$15 (-15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $48 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $19 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-73%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$82 +333%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$54 +276%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $98 +$91 +93%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $92 +$18 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 +$76 +650%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$23 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 +$23 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$12 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$32 +785%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$29 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$52 +52%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$29 +65%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 +$26 +262%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$30 +596%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $104 56m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 15h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $69 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $92 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $80 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 39h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $39 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.90 · official $198.02 · 142 history records