Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd957…572f crypto 603 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,087 (+13%) realized +$4,192 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate74%396W / 138L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 25% -5.7%
≤30d 196 -16.5% -24.5% 63% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 534 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 60% -7.8%
all 534 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 60% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 60% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 32% -16.6%
15% -26.1% 12% -24.6%
20% -33.4% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$40 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,769
Realized+$4,192
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses396 / 138
Open positions69
Markets (closed)534 / 603
History coverage85d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $160 $183 +$23 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $149 $168 +$20 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $132 $150 +$18 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 74¢ 55¢ $168 $125 −$44 (-26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 71¢ 55¢ $158 $121 −$37 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $107 $121 +$14 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 78¢ 57¢ $161 $118 −$43 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 83¢ 60¢ $127 $92 −$36 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 70¢ 55¢ $104 $81 −$23 (-22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 88¢ 81¢ $87 $79 −$7 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 88¢ 64¢ $86 $63 −$23 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 88¢ 78¢ $61 $54 −$7 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 91¢ 84¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 64¢ 94¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 58¢ 73¢ $15 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 60¢ 77¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 64¢ 84¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+32%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Yes 29¢ 72¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+143%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $83 −$57 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$8 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$8 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$13 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$6 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$31 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$15 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $34 −$29 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $113 +$21 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$16 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $64 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $82 +$19 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$16 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$12 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 21? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $7 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $16 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $39 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $8 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $42 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $43 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $39 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,768.87 · official $1,769.06 (match) · 3500 history records