Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd958…f864 crypto 1352 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,134 (-65%) realized −$8,007 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%470W / 866L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$442
7 days−$3,925
14 days−$3,925
30 days−$3,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$32
crypto 32% −$346
sports 29% −$3,210
world 6% −$805
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 27% -46.6%
≤30d 483 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 27% -46.6%
≤90d 483 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 27% -46.6%
all 1336 -11.9% -20.3% 35% 33% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 33% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -47.2%
15% -34.9% 27% -52.3%
20% -41.3% 24% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$8,007
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses470 / 866
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1336 / 1352
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $207 $104 −$104 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 40¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+149%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 64¢ 56¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$9 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$6 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$8 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$20 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.71 · official $134.31 · 3500 history records