Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd959…fc59 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%40W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$5
crypto 12% +$1
other 3% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses40 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage537d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $41 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? Mar 19 $4,844 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Feb 11 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 60d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 93d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 121d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 148d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $41 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $26 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 211d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $48 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 240d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $31 241d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 272d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $37 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $26 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $40 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.55 · official $52.55 (match) · 114 history records