Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd960…1d82 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+5%) realized +$200 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$112
14 days+$209
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$180
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.6% +10.0% 83% 83% +5.8%
≤30d 42 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 47 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 53% -4.9%
all 47 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 53% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 53% -4.9%
10% -13.0% 47% -14.0%
15% -21.4% 32% -22.3%
20% -29.1% 19% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage34d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ 69¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $40 +$22 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $60 +$19 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $40 +$22 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $40 +$13 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $37 +$37 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 19 $40 −$39 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $48 +$8 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $100 +$26 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $99 +$32 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $80 +$13 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$19 +94%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 09 $40 −$2 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $119 +$116 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 08 $101 +$3 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $60 +$29 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $139 −$2 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $199 −$99 -50%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $60 +$51 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $60 +$56 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $81 +$44 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $80 +$24 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $119 +$47 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 06 $79 −$78 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $40 −$39 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 +$7 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 31 $60 +$1 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 31 $80 −$4 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C May 31 $136 −$14 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca May 31 $119 −$4 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, May 31 $119 −$4 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $60 +$24 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $164 +$2 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $218 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $119 +$22 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 29 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims May 29 $101 −$9 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $309 −$14 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$8 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $20 +$5 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $80 +$32 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 18 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $60 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 74¢ $60 3h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 62¢ $40 32h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 75¢ $40 2d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 65¢ $30 2d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 64¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 49¢ $37 4d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 75¢ $60 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 93¢ $56 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $40 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 93¢ $39 10d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $40 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 11d
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P BUY Vinicius Oliveira 52¢ $40 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 92¢ $51 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 92¢ $184 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $119 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $102 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $1 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $1 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 74¢ $39 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $74 14d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 75¢ $99 14d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $80 14d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Farés Ziam 74¢ $98 14d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 50¢ $63 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) SELL Édgar Cháirez 91¢ $106 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) SELL Édgar Cháirez 91¢ $10 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 40¢ $79 14d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.05 · official $134.06 (match) · 123 history records