Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd961…6afb crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-53%) realized −$215 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$275
sports 13% −$60
other 10% −$46
politics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-74.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 33% -68.2%
≤30d 11 -71.8% -74.4% 18% 18% -83.0%
≤90d 11 -71.8% -74.4% 18% 18% -83.0%
all 11 -71.8% -74.4% 18% 18% -83.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.4% 18% -83.0%
10% -76.9% 18% -84.6%
15% -79.1% 9% -86.1%
20% -81.2% 9% -87.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$41 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $14.63 · 17 history records