Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days+$19

14 days+$19

30 days+$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$13	$12	−$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$9	$8	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$27	+$16	+61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$6	+$3	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 80% +$19

sports 20% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$13	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$9	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	87¢	$31	3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$14	7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	37¢	$12	7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$6	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$13	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+37.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+51.4%	+37.0%	100%	100%	+42.4%
≤30d	2	+51.4%	+37.0%	100%	100%	+42.4%
≤90d	2	+51.4%	+37.0%	100%	100%	+42.4%
all	2	+51.4%	+37.0%	100%	100%	+42.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.0%	100%	+42.4%
10%	+23.9%	100%	+28.7%
15%	+11.9%	100%	+16.3%
20%	+1.0%	50%	+4.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.