Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd970…bbba sports 1165 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,715 (+35%) realized +$1,712 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%803W / 360L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$216
14 days+$804
30 days+$1,329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$1,094
other 32% +$522
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 57% +15.1%
≤30d 638 +62.8% +47.3% 73% 67% +23.7%
≤90d 1163 +52.4% +37.8% 69% 64% +20.6%
all 1163 +52.4% +37.8% 69% 64% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 64% +20.6%
10% ← realistic here +24.7% 53% +9.1%
15% +12.6% 44% -1.4%
20% +1.6% 34% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1,712
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses803 / 360
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1163 / 1165
History coverage83d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? No 82¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$5 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 +$11 +72%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +41%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +87%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$6 -39%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 +$16 +104%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +14%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $16 +$5 +35%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 +$26 +170%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $12 +$11 +95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $15 +$20 +132%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$13 +84%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $16 +$66 +424%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +63%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $16 +$12 +75%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$20 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16 +$5 +33%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$6 +40%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$2 -12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$13 -81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 34m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 76¢ $15 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 35m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $15 35m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 82¢ $15 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 75¢ $20 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $15 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 69¢ $18 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 69¢ $3 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 51¢ $16 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $26 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 4h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $18 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 70¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 43h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 43h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL No 76¢ $16 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.43 · official $18.43 (match) · 2766 history records