Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd972…75b0 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
other 23% −$2
politics 10% $0
tech 9% $0
crypto 8% +$1
economics 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 0% -11.2%
all 46 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $28 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 −$1 -62%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $24 −$3 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 28 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 24 $3 −$1 -43%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 04 $16 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $34 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $42 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $42 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $42 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $20 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $24 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $42 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.24 · official $42.24 (match) · 119 history records