Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd974…a49e crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$792
other 4% +$142
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +56.4% +41.5% 52% 52% -0.1%
≤30d 29 +56.4% +41.5% 52% 52% -0.1%
≤90d 29 +56.4% +41.5% 52% 52% -0.1%
all 29 +56.4% +41.5% 52% 52% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.5% 52% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here +28.0% 48% -9.7%
15% +15.6% 45% -18.4%
20% +4.3% 34% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +102% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$277 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 45¢ 46¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Joaquin Niemann finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $211 +$605 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $953 −$953 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $628 +$334 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $627 −$627 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $630 −$630 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $1,267 +$152 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1,248 +$251 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $634 +$463 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $626 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $617 +$401 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $460 +$787 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $422 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $314 +$632 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $73 +$998 +1365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$9 +449%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$80 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $208 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $211 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $154 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $165 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $211 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $190 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $233 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $963 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $553 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $75 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $627 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $272 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $359 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $238 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $310 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $83 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $572 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $422 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $425 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $264 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $372 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $618 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $93 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $588 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $737 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $288 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $240 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $518 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $579 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.65 · official $245.21 · 99 history records