Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd975…5e9d other 858 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-0%) realized −$954 · open +$726
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%816W / 35L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$301
14 days+$359
30 days+$1,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,246
finance 26% +$326
tech 18% +$287
sports 7% +$298
crypto 3% +$980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 2% -5.6%
≤30d 279 +2.0% -7.8% 99% 2% -6.3%
≤90d 814 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.6%
all 851 +7.6% -2.7% 96% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -20.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -28.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$112 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$4,004
Realized−$954
Unrealized+$726
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses816 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)851 / 858
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $985 $1,206 +$222 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $865 $1,113 +$248 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $508 $697 +$190 (+37%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $490 $493 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 31¢ $370 $434 +$64 (+17%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 22 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,080-$1,100 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,160-$1,180 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,180-$1,200 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,040-$1,060 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,060-$1,080 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,220 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,200-$1,220 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at <$1,040 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 26 $168 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $221 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $7.00? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 22 above $90? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of th Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $360-$365 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $3.00? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $1.50? Jun 26 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $2.50? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $5.50? Jun 26 $150 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of t Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $6.00? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $3.50? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $6.50? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o Jun 26 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 Jun 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $403 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 2 Jun 26 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of June 2 Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $82.50 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $104 +$1 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $209 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $222 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $223 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $258 +$3 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $225 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $167 +$2 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 22 20 Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $226 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $42 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of June 2 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of June 22 Jun 26 $767 +$7 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of June 2 Jun 26 $625 +$4 +1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 22 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of June 22 Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $300-$305 on the final day of trading of th Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $330-$340 on the final day of trading o Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $115 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1,250 +$250 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,200-$1,220 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,220 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,080-$1,100 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,060-$1,080 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,080-$1,100 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,060-$1,080 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,040-$1,060 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,040-$1,060 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at <$1,040 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,160-$1,180 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,180-$1,200 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at $1,200-$1,220 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,220 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at <$1,040 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $990 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $330-$340 on the final day of trading o BUY No 99¢ $54 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o BUY No 99¢ $40 3h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $360-$365 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $300-$305 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 99¢ $54 3h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 4h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $55 4h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $3.50? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $221 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $154 4h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $222 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 5h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $223 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 99¢ $258 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,004.05 · official $4,004.05 (match) · 3500 history records