Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd976…7636 sports 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$681 (+3%) realized +$853 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%96W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,876
7 days−$152
14 days+$554
30 days+$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$134
other 2% +$273
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -1.2% -10.6% 65% 62% -10.4%
≤30d 144 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 65% -7.2%
≤90d 144 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 65% -7.2%
all 144 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 65% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 65% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 56% -16.1%
15% -24.6% 44% -24.2%
20% -32.0% 31% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$141 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$853
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses96 / 48
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage10d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 69¢ 60¢ $348 $306 −$42 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 51¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $249 +$124 +50%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $203 +$209 +103%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$34 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$51 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$60 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $124 +$50 +40%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $201 +$37 +19%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$125 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $199 +$158 +79%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 −$108 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$185 -92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $216 −$213 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $202 +$120 +59%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$296 +145%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$58 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $248 −$248 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $320 −$320 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $404 −$404 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $201 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $382 +$291 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $404 +$214 +53%
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $201 +$25 +12%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $101 +$30 +30%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 +$76 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 +$185 +91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 14 $91 +$52 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $202 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $425 +$170 +40%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $340 +$87 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $276 +$162 +59%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 69¢ $351 19m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $132 4h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 99¢ $373 4h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 99¢ $412 4h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 48¢ $203 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 69¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 63¢ $148 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $134 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $152 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $129 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $160 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $174 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $100 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $100 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $124 16h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $238 18h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $328 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $357 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $199 20h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $109 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 86¢ $100 21h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $201 21h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 61¢ $202 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 21h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 47¢ $216 22h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $322 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $499 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.49 · official $306.49 (match) · 286 history records