Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd977…2dc4 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$189 (-3%) realized −$217 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$539
7 days+$942
14 days+$670
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$777
other 28% +$398
sports 27% +$1,231
world 4% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +35.2% +22.3% 38% 35% +33.5%
≤30d 53 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 32% +4.8%
≤90d 53 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 32% +4.8%
all 53 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 32% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 32% +4.8%
10% -7.3% 28% -5.2%
15% -16.3% 28% -14.4%
20% -24.5% 28% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$83 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 69
History coverage14d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $500 $528 +$28 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $102 +$356 +348%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 +$243 +238%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $102 +$489 +477%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $232 −$228 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$183 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$109 +213%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $153 +$188 +123%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 +$226 +249%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$35 -69%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$305 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$219 +108%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$196 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$62 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $154 +$175 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$303 +288%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$178 -87%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$168 +266%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $208 −$54 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$81 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 9m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 52m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 12¢ $51 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 13¢ $103 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $31 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? AND Will Bosnia and BUY 14¢ $51 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 14¢ $103 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 14¢ $51 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $51 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Bosnia-Herzegovina BUY 4¢ $21 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $102 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 11¢ $52 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $40 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 40¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 5¢ $21 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 17¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $82 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $102 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 12¢ $103 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.01 · official $581.27 · 121 history records