Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd978…8bed crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$161 (-9%) realized −$106 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$20
crypto 26% +$101
politics 13% −$240
sports 12% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -12.8% -21.1% 32% 32% -12.4%
≤30d 56 -12.8% -21.1% 32% 32% -12.4%
≤90d 56 -12.8% -21.1% 32% 32% -12.4%
all 57 -14.4% -22.5% 32% 32% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 32% -25.6%
10% -29.9% 28% -32.8%
15% -36.7% 26% -39.3%
20% -42.9% 19% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$23 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 63
History coverage136d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$42 -82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$23 +23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$18 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$23 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$235 +1104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$54 -79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$7 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 30m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 8¢ $9 31m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $33 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.19 · official $60.33 (match) · 119 history records