Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd97c…aedb sports 645 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 236d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53,389 (-8%) realized −$53,556 · open +$167
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%308W / 334L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,096per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 236d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$3,566
world 26% −$14,066
other 14% +$9,910
politics 12% +$5,147
crypto 10% −$11,272
tech 3% −$5,808
economics 3% −$1,515
finance 0% −$537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.8% -39.2% 0% 0% -39.1%
≤30d 5 -34.8% -41.0% 20% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 119 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 29% -15.0%
all 642 -3.8% -12.9% 48% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 38% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 29% -20.7%
15% -28.9% 18% -28.4%
20% -35.8% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,149) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$342 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$2,037
Realized−$53,556
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses308 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions2
Markets (closed)642 / 645
History coverage236d ⚠
Avg bet$1,096
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,644 $1,757 +$113 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $226 $280 +$54 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $186 −$63 -34%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $194 −$61 -32%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 10 $888 +$16 +2%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $114 −$12 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $221 −$213 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $6,191 +$991 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $1,123 −$42 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $1,759 −$173 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 17 $2,806 −$15 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 16 $2,134 −$23 -1%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 16 $333 −$333 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 16 $671 −$211 -31%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $3,835 −$3,835 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $226 +$343 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $10,115 +$188 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 15 $1,149 −$121 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 15 $1,135 −$65 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $7,116 −$660 -9%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $733 −$37 -5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1,311 +$22 +2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 15 $211 −$93 -44%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,997 +$336 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $7,699 +$561 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $1,340 −$4 -0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $888 −$172 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 01 $222 −$18 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $765 −$226 -30%
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 N May 01 $1,081 −$342 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $12,253 +$677 +6%
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $444 +$107 +24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $987 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $1,403 −$29 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3,738 +$772 +21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 26 $221 −$129 -58%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $222 +$19 +8%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $111 −$111 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $444 −$117 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3,401 +$103 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $1,778 +$44 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $4,168 +$346 +8%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1,058 −$21 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,442 −$578 -40%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $27,475 +$1,379 +5%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $222 −$5 -2%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $222 −$4 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $222 +$44 +20%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $333 +$32 +10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $222 +$60 +27%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $789 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $123 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $123 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $133 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on BUY $1 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 42¢ $904 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $79 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $79 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $114 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $114 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $114 9d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 40¢ $888 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $280 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $221 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $519 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $116 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $651 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $3,937 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 63¢ $1,081 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,077 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 66¢ $2,791 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2,110 32d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $1,123 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $2,222 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,037.22 · official $2,037.22 (match) · 3500 history records