Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd97d…b56e crypto 1019 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$570 (-1%) realized −$570 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%986W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$422
weather 8% −$3,708
other 7% +$18
finance 0% +$304
tech 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 413 +1.3% -8.4% 99% 0% -16.0%
≤90d 1017 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 1% -13.7%
all 1017 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 1% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -21.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -29.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$157 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$570
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses986 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1017 / 1019
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1017 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $141 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $108 +$6 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $140 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $140 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $140 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$2 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$3 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $139 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $68 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$3 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$5 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$5 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$5 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$5 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$7 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$6 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $136 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $36 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $36 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.77 · official $2.77 (match) · 3500 history records