Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd982…0ea9 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 416d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$631 (+37%) realized +$636 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$484
tech 24% +$10
world 12% +$141
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤30d 2 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤90d 2 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 50% +26.3%
all 9 +5.0% -5.0% 67% 56% +31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 56% +31.2%
10% -14.1% 56% +18.7%
15% -22.4% 44% +7.2%
20% -30.0% 44% -3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$35 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$636
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage416d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $199 +$163 +82%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? Jun 02 $402 +$10 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Monaco Gra May 25 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? May 25 $24 +$18 +74%
Will 'Fern' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 2025 May 25 $200 +$141 +70%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $450 +$398 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.24 · official $290.24 (match) · 20 history records