Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd985…1944
other · 30 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$15 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$18
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)13 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 17 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 25¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 43¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% +$4
other 38% +$11
sports 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 38m
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $4 43m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 25¢ $1 48m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $1 51m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 84¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 83¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +33.0% +20.3% 54% 46% +51.5%
≤30d 13 +33.0% +20.3% 54% 46% +51.5%
≤90d 13 +33.0% +20.3% 54% 46% +51.5%
all 13 +33.0% +20.3% 54% 46% +51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 46% +51.5%
10% ← realistic here +8.8% 31% +37.0%
15% -1.7% 31% +23.8%
20% -11.3% 23% +11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.25 · official $17.73 (match) · 44 history records