Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd987…9381 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$948 (+11%) realized +$1,091 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%36W / 18L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$126
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$3
sports 21% +$979
politics 21% −$19
other 15% −$140
world 10% +$4
economics 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +33.7% +21.0% 100% 100% +21.0%
≤30d 1 +33.7% +21.0% 100% 100% +21.0%
≤90d 11 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 27% +29.8%
all 54 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 17% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 17% +3.9%
10% -20.1% 17% -6.1%
15% -27.8% 11% -15.1%
20% -34.9% 11% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$51 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$1,558
Realized+$1,091
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses36 / 18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage541d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $250 $398 +$148 (+59%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $280 $281 +$1 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $249 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $232 $231 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $199 +$3 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $250 $102 −$148 (-59%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 21 $374 +$126 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 25 $109 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 25 $109 +$1 +1%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 25 $305 +$195 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 25 $115 +$385 +335%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 19 $70 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $165 +$335 +203%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Feb 13 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? Feb 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? Feb 13 $120 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $296 +$100 +34%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 26 $95 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 19 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 23 $298 +$2 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 13 $300 +$159 +53%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 28 $250 +$65 +26%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Los Heretics (BO5) Oct 20 $250 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? Oct 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Sep 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Sep 30 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 25–May 2? Sep 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 29 $250 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $210 in March? Mar 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? Mar 30 $80 +$205 +257%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 21-28? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 22 $402 −$2 -0%
Warriors vs. Pistons Jan 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Panthers vs. Falcons Jan 08 $44 +$156 +354%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Jan 04 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $60 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $172 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 38d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 38d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $280 38d
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 74¢ $374 38d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $109 94d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $109 94d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $110 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $110 94d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 23¢ $115 94d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $70 128d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 61¢ $305 128d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 33¢ $165 128d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $120 145d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $120 145d
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards BUY Trail Blazers 63¢ $252 145d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $396 146d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $95 184d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $296 184d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $90 210d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 93¢ $273 210d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 92¢ $5 210d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $8 220d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 33¢ $132 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,558.33 · official $1,558.33 (match) · 207 history records