Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd98c…33b5 crypto 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,230 (-6%) realized −$1,230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%250W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$510
7 days+$238
14 days−$240
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,849
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 55% -7.0%
≤30d 377 -12.3% -20.7% 47% 47% -11.0%
≤90d 583 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 43% -18.2%
all 583 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 43% -18.2%
10% -30.0% 41% -26.0%
15% -36.8% 39% -33.2%
20% -43.0% 36% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$28 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses250 / 333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)583 / 583
History coverage48d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 583 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $115 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $113 +$89 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $108 +$94 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $133 +$69 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$157 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$71 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$50 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$126 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$103 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $133 +$69 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$106 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$77 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$130 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $122 −$119 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$62 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $109 +$93 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$107 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $90 +$112 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$110 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $112 +$90 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$96 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$67 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $142 +$60 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$73 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $87 +$115 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $127 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$109 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $119 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $109 +$93 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $88 −$85 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $115 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $86 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $115 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $45 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $113 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $108 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $84 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $86 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $133 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $45 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $133 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $125 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $122 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $98 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $95 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $92 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1094 history records