Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd98e…b3d5 world 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 64L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$13
other 14% +$5
finance 2% −$1
politics 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 20% 10% -10.5%
≤30d 26 +2.1% -7.6% 27% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 9% -9.6%
all 96 +1.5% -8.1% 33% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage468d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $151 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $165 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$4 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $163 −$11 -7%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $338 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $444 +$3 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $506 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $22 −$2 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $196 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2,462 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $18 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $173 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $173 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $12 +$6 +55%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $468 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,143 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $1,146 −$4 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -10%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $17 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 20 $5 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $136 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $168 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $90 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $90 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $53 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $151 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $151 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $165 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $165 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $130 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $155 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $129 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $66 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $79 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $143 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $115 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $41 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $4.65 (match) · 378 history records