Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd98f…5d9a sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,073 (+4%) realized +$1,326 · open −$253
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$597per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$711
7 days+$711
14 days+$211
30 days−$1,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1,164
sports 25% +$684
politics 14% +$482
culture 9% +$1,116
economics 8% +$405
world 7% −$988
finance 7% −$1,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +174.5% +148.3% 100% 100% +148.3%
≤30d 3 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 33% -61.9%
≤90d 18 -40.6% -46.3% 33% 22% -24.8%
all 41 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 46% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 46% -2.0%
10% -12.9% 44% -11.4%
15% -21.3% 39% -20.0%
20% -29.0% 32% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$746) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$348 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$1,326
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage189d
Avg bet$597
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 67¢ 30¢ $450 $197 −$253 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $408 +$711 +174%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $509 −$500 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1,794 −$1,751 -98%
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $746 +$591 +79%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,392 +$516 +37%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $45 −$45 -100%
duplicate Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Apr 09 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 09 $105 −$105 -100%
New Haven Chargers vs. Stonehill Skyhawks Apr 09 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet befor Apr 09 $135 −$135 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 2? Apr 09 $1,661 −$1,079 -65%
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 202 Apr 09 $499 −$499 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $750 +$956 +128%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $391 +$19 +5%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $2,696 +$279 +10%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $687 +$235 +34%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 15 $558 +$464 +83%
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Feb 02 $313 +$776 +248%
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Feb 02 $269 +$43 +16%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $1,231 +$632 +51%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $874 −$227 -26%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 29 $1,823 −$108 -6%
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? Jan 28 $159 −$154 -97%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jan 21 $195 −$35 -18%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jan 20 $495 −$179 -36%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 14 $1,265 +$416 +33%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5 Jan 12 $496 +$405 +82%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5 Jan 12 $253 +$243 +96%
Will Tyler Shough be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 11 $650 −$463 -71%
Spread: Mercyhurst Lakers (-2.5) Jan 04 $330 +$269 +82%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 04 $300 +$432 +144%
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jan 03 $350 +$410 +117%
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. LIU Sharks Jan 03 $113 +$56 +49%
Wagner Seahawks vs. Chicago State Cougars Jan 03 $300 +$256 +85%
Will Georgia win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 02 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $600 +$444 +74%
Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $747 +$46 +6%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 27 $217 +$102 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 35¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $306 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 39¢ $509 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $353 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $391 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $394 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $213 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $386 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16d
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY Yes 46¢ $500 67d
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? SELL No 51¢ $0 68d
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? SELL No 51¢ $257 68d
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 49¢ $246 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,418 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 89¢ $344 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 78d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 89¢ $81 78d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.07 · official $197.07 (match) · 197 history records