Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd992…985a crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$278 (-6%) realized −$276 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate38%49W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$121
14 days−$117
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$246
sports 37% −$96
weather 15% −$180
other 6% +$19
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% −$10
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.6% -21.9% 58% 29% -20.0%
≤30d 78 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 18% -17.4%
≤90d 128 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 16% -19.0%
all 128 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 16% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 16% -19.0%
10% -36.3% 11% -26.7%
15% -42.4% 7% -33.8%
20% -48.1% 5% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses49 / 79
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions10
Markets (closed)128 / 138
History coverage35d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $82 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $287 −$95 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $295 −$64 -22%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $88 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $619 +$33 +5%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $40 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $82 −$8 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $40 −$6 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $158 −$79 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $152 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 15m
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $46 21m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $24 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.33 · official $259.33 (match) · 558 history records