Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd996…0367 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+16%) realized +$124 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$145
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$138
sports 41% −$34
crypto 4% +$26
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 67% +15.5%
≤30d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 62% +7.8%
≤90d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 62% +7.8%
all 40 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 62% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 62% +7.8%
10% -17.5% 60% -2.5%
15% -25.5% 58% -11.9%
20% -32.8% 35% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$19 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +64%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$16 +52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$12 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $42 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $145.93 (match) · 75 history records