Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99e…2422 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,010 (-83%) realized −$970 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$438
14 days−$658
30 days−$658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$308
other 38% −$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-70.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -61.4% -65.1% 9% 9% -55.0%
≤30d 13 -67.3% -70.5% 8% 8% -64.0%
≤90d 13 -67.3% -70.5% 8% 8% -64.0%
all 13 -67.3% -70.5% 8% 8% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.5% 8% -64.0%
10% -73.3% 8% -67.5%
15% -75.9% 8% -70.6%
20% -78.2% 8% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$83 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$970
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$332 +324%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 17h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 21h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.45 · official $60.45 (match) · 23 history records