Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd99f…4768 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9,763 (-21%) realized −$9,606 · open −$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 49L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,287
7 days−$1,287
14 days−$1,287
30 days−$1,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$15,290
other 30% +$5,288
world 6% +$155
sports 1% −$432
tech 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -66.2% -69.5% 14% 7% -59.7%
≤30d 16 -59.7% -63.5% 19% 12% -56.4%
≤90d 23 -63.1% -66.6% 17% 9% -68.5%
all 70 -38.9% -44.7% 30% 23% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 23% -30.9%
10% -50.0% 20% -37.5%
15% -54.8% 10% -43.5%
20% -59.3% 7% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$556) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$407 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$3,130
Realized−$9,606
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)70 / 84
History coverage252d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $980 $942 −$38 (-4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $660 $654 −$6 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $190 $163 −$27 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $228 −$226 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 −$34 -32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $399 −$242 -61%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 +$51 +26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $382 −$380 -99%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $556 −$173 -31%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $251 −$112 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $121 +$51 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 06 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 30 $4,500 −$4,495 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 05 $1,098 −$1,034 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 05 $2,857 −$2,738 -96%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $2,700 +$157 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 03 $128 −$122 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $1,052 −$32 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 01 $950 −$950 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 01 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $3,183 −$2,050 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 23 $166 −$33 -20%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $2,463 +$2,925 +119%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $3,315 +$3,936 +119%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $200 −$68 -34%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Jan 13 $1,029 +$310 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 02 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 02 $400 +$73 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 01 $323 −$140 -43%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 31 $100 −$53 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $207 −$207 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 31? Dec 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $667 −$498 -75%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 28 $60 −$29 -48%
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 28 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $2,133 −$1,228 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $2,385 +$646 +27%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 13 $85 −$58 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $400 +$79 +20%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 06 $100 +$9 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 06 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $799 7m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 10m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 16m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $189 35m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 38m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $568 39m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $228 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $71 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $157 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $105 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $298 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $251 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $251 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $101 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $101 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $382 16h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $383 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $98 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $71 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $195 38h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 38h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,129.90 · official $3,129.90 (match) · 360 history records