Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99f…fe94 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$7
other 23% $0
crypto 10% +$1
finance 7% −$1
politics 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 14% -7.7%
≤90d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 14% -7.7%
all 29 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 7% -8.3%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.74 per $1 lost it wins $4.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $35 +$4 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $14 $0 -0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $14 $0 -1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $14 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $17 $0 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 12 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $39 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $11 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $24 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 42h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $44 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $43 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 25d
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1 330d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 356d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL No 97¢ $9 357d
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? BUY No 97¢ $1 361d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes 1¢ $0 377d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL Yes 2¢ $0 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.39 · official $44.39 (match) · 97 history records