Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9a0…8b5b sports 1408 markets active 6h ago coverage 743d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-1%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%767W / 640L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$40
14 days−$73
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$78
politics 9% +$325
other 7% −$572
crypto 5% −$97
tech 4% −$37
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -16.8% -24.8% 50% 46% -32.3%
≤30d 103 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 46% -22.1%
≤90d 462 -32.1% -38.6% 41% 35% -27.3%
all 1407 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 49% -10.2%
10% -22.5% 42% -18.8%
15% -30.0% 36% -26.6%
20% -36.9% 30% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

743d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses767 / 640
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1407 / 1408
History coverage743d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$10 +156%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 32h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $1 32h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 86¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 3257 history records