Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9a1…3346 crypto 1215 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$302 (-2%) realized −$299 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate78%941W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$110
14 days−$112
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 5% -16.8%
≤30d 573 -6.3% -15.2% 76% 4% -13.8%
≤90d 1214 -6.6% -15.5% 78% 4% -13.4%
all 1214 -6.6% -15.5% 78% 4% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 4% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 1% -21.7%
15% -31.0% 1% -29.2%
20% -37.7% 1% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses941 / 273
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1214 / 1215
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$59 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$40 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $48 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $77 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $59 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records