Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd9a1…e0dc crypto 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate79%175W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$23
other 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +4.5% -5.5% 81% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 222 +2.5% -7.3% 79% 53% -11.1%
≤90d 222 +2.5% -7.3% 79% 53% -11.1%
all 222 +2.5% -7.3% 79% 53% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 53% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 33% -19.6%
15% -24.2% 19% -27.4%
20% -31.7% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses175 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$22 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.67 · official $5.67 (match) · 450 history records