Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9a1…7730
world · 40 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage481d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $79 +$4 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $137 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $67 +$2 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $152 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $7 $0 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $41 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $3 $0 -12%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $105 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $87 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $487 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Mar 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 26 $23 +$4 +19%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Bellarmine Feb 21 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 66% +$10
sports 25% +$12
other 6% +$3
finance 2% $0
weather 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $22 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $54 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $54 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $21 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $52 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $50 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 40 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records