Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D9 0xd9af…359c sports 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,932 (+19%) realized +$11,930 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%180W / 101L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$428est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,416
7 days+$9,976
14 days+$11,698
30 days+$11,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$8,577
other 29% +$2,759
crypto 3% +$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +19.9% +8.5% 67% 62% +9.1%
≤30d 281 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 58% +7.1%
≤90d 281 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 58% +7.1%
all 281 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 58% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.8% 58% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.1% 48% -3.1%
15% -15.2% 38% -12.5%
20% -23.5% 32% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$122 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$11,930
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses180 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$428
Open positions3
Markets (closed)281 / 286
History coverage13d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Lucie Havlickova 67¢ 62¢ $54 $49 −$5 (-9%)
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Mili Poljicak 44¢ 62¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Akasha Urhobo 18¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $11 +$24 +232%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $4 +$1 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $259 −$102 -40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $43 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $10 −$5 -52%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $99 +$21 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $31 +$25 +81%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $282 +$244 +86%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 23 $33 +$9 +27%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $22 −$16 -72%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland Jun 23 $43 +$12 +28%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $24 −$23 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 23 $15 +$6 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Laura Pigossi vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $9 +$6 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae Jun 23 $76 −$76 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $134 −$132 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,741 +$1,392 +21%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $909 +$139 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $293 −$287 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $4 +$1 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $85 +$9 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $37 −$37 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $508 +$492 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $139 −$138 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +19%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $488 +$534 +109%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $279 +$230 +83%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $348 +$167 +48%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 22 $239 +$26 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $195 +$755 +388%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $800 +$363 +45%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $397 +$103 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 22 $51 +$23 +44%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $72 −$71 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $226 +$24 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $491 +$20 +4%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $62 +$60 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $178 +$322 +180%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $77 +$38 +49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $286 +$224 +79%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $60 +$92 +152%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $19 +$31 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 71¢ $4 20m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 67¢ $51 24m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Akasha Urhobo 18¢ $3 29m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 29¢ $11 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Akasha Urhobo 52¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Varvara Lepchenko 88¢ $146 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 24¢ $33 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 47¢ $12 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 90¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 17¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Anna Siskova 64¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 74¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 37¢ $29 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 55¢ $59 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 47¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Varvara Lepchenko 68¢ $69 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner BUY Alice Rame 47¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner BUY Alice Rame 44¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 73¢ $11 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 23¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 77¢ $8 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Ashlyn Krueger 80¢ $4 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Storm Hunter 60¢ $4 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Storm Hunter 53¢ $27 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 66¢ $19 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Sofia Costoulas 39¢ $0 2h
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Mili Poljicak 44¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 66¢ $10 3h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Lorenzo Sonego 76¢ $24 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi BUY Katarzyna Kawa 78¢ $33 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.72 · official $79.37 (match) · 616 history records