Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b1…8eca world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2
other 20% +$6
politics 15% +$1
sports 8% −$19
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 5% -9.5%
all 89 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 9% -9.9%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.5%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage540d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $146 −$9 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $17 −$3 -20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $200 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $111 −$3 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $64 +$4 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $110 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $79 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $56 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $42 +$6 +15%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $4 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +19%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $18 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $45 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $49 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $31 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.03 · official $37.83 (match) · 369 history records