Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9b3…74c4
politics · 204 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses55 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)199 / 204
History coverage98d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 5 History 199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $64 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 01 $16 −$1 -5%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 31 $6 $0 -5%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 31 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 49% −$8
other 31% −$5
crypto 9% −$1
sports 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 12m
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 4h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $10 9h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $10 12h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 26h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 27h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 30h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 30h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 33h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 33h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 37h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 37h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 38h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 38h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $4 41h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 42h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 78 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 146 -0.3% -9.8% 23% 0% -9.9%
all 199 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.96 · official $40.96 (match) · 1210 history records