Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9b5…9db1
weather · 730 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$13,921 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,738 · open −$30,770
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,581
Realized−$3,738
Unrealized−$30,770
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses88 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions500
Markets (closed)177 / 730
History coverage3d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day691.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 500 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,095
7 days−$3,738
14 days−$3,738
30 days−$3,738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $104 $110 +$5 (+5%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 100¢ 99¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 98¢ 98¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 97¢ 97¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 13¢ 52¢ $15 $62 +$47 (+312%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $927 $23 −$904 (-98%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $924 $23 −$901 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $578 +$71 +12%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $440 +$210 +48%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $630 +$19 +3%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $641 +$8 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $613 +$37 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $352 −$13 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $220 −$9 -4%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 12 $216 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 12 $241 +$7 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $231 +$17 +7%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $232 +$16 +7%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $142 +$106 +75%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 12 $234 +$14 +6%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $173 +$75 +44%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $84 −$83 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $247 +$26 +10%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $229 −$79 -35%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $144 −$11 -8%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $199 +$64 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 12 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $432 −$432 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$31,552
politics 13% +$276
sports 10% −$662
tech 9% −$1,083
weather 6% −$1,495
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$7
world 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 0m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 0m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 0m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $73 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 4¢ $3 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $74 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 100¢ $74 0m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 97¢ $71 0m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 1m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 1m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $6 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $23 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $23 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $23 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $23 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 4¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 97¢ $97 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $99 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 100¢ $100 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $100 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 9% -27.2%
≤30d 177 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 9% -27.2%
≤90d 177 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 9% -27.2%
all 177 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 9% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover691.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 9% -27.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 6% -34.1%
15% -46.8% 5% -40.5%
20% -52.0% 3% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,581.23 · official $1,580.93 (match) · 3500 history records