Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b5…7ef4 crypto 1207 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$304 (-2%) realized −$303 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%547W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$158
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1204 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 9% -10.4%
all 1204 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 9% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 2% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$303
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses547 / 657
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1204 / 1207
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 06 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 06 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 06 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 06 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 06 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 06 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 06 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 06 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 06 $12 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 06 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 06 $40 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 06 $40 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $40 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 06 $40 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 06 $40 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 06 $40 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 06 $40 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 06 $40 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 06 $40 −$23 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 06 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 06 $40 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 06 $40 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 06 $40 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 06 $40 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 06 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 06 $40 −$17 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 06 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 06 $40 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 06 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 06 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 06 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 06 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 06 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 06 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ger BUY 6¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $114 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 19¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $7 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $11 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $17 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $27 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.18 · official $170.85 · 3500 history records