Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b6…cc7b weather 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-9%) realized −$208 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%64W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$48
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% −$24
world 32% −$23
politics 15% −$156
other 11% −$19
finance 3% +$6
tech 2% −$42
sports 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.6% -18.2% 22% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 49 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 16% -7.4%
≤90d 67 -5.7% -14.7% 49% 21% -5.2%
all 110 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 25% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 25% -17.7%
10% -23.4% 16% -25.6%
15% -30.8% 15% -32.8%
20% -37.6% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses64 / 46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage114d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch? No 70¢ 68¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $124 −$24 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $12 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -15%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $0 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$33 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 -5%
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 03 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 27 $10 +$10 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $19 +$22 +116%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? May 24 $20 +$16 +85%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $29 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 54¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? SELL No 30¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? SELL No 32¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? SELL No 32¢ $95 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 36¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 39¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 39¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 39¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 38¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 38¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.40 · official $138.15 (match) · 391 history records