Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b9…04f6 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%19W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$48
other 29% +$4
world 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 17% -5.6%
≤30d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 17% -5.6%
≤90d 23 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 17% -5.6%
all 23 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 17% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 17% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 9% -14.7%
15% -27.1% 4% -22.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses19 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 96¢ 98¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 64¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 +$7 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $78 +$4 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $89 +$5 +5%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 +$11 +12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 +$15 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $155 −$12 -7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$40 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $44 +$4 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $48 +$4 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $67 +$7 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $94 −$8 -8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $19 20m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $8 20m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $65 21m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 96¢ $23 22m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $13 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $92 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $91 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 63¢ $66 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $42 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $11 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $7 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $24 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $69 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $64 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 61¢ $42 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 61¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 61¢ $3 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 61¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 61¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $25 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 81¢ $32 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 83¢ $32 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 83¢ $13 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 83¢ $5 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 83¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $29 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $45 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.39 · official $116.54 (match) · 126 history records