Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd9b9…03b8 crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,079 (+44%) realized +$4,142 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%62W / 93L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$114
14 days−$1,028
30 days+$6,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$951
world 25% −$1,158
sports 19% +$7,311
crypto 7% −$101
politics 6% −$482
tech 5% −$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +89.0% +71.0% 33% 33% +75.2%
≤30d 19 +80.4% +63.3% 21% 21% +136.9%
≤90d 40 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 18% +81.5%
all 155 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 32% +38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 32% +38.6%
10% -35.2% 19% +25.3%
15% -41.5% 14% +13.2%
20% -47.2% 10% +2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$49 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$4,142
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses62 / 93
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 165
History coverage132d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $187 $145 −$42 (-22%)
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $72 $51 −$21 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $38 +$156 +413%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $79 −$37 -46%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $648 −$648 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $299 −$167 -56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $890 −$259 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 17 $351 −$351 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $287 +$439 +153%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $396 −$391 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $262 −$12 -5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $62 +$399 +647%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $453 +$7,224 +1595%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 06 $62 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Apr 14 $64 −$64 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Apr 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 20? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 09 $528 −$479 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +37%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Apr 09 $2 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 1AM ET Apr 09 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 0 - 0 FC Bayern München? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Pistons vs. Knicks Apr 07 $200 −$141 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -38%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $29 −$18 -63%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 06 $132 −$132 -100%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 06 $115 +$17 +15%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $39 +$76 +197%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $327 −$327 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $186 +$140 +75%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $291 −$243 -84%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $305 +$82 +27%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Mar 03 $69 −$27 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $193 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $79 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 43¢ $140 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $74 7d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $82 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $21 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY $103 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 13¢ $4 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 15¢ $308 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $29 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $30 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $74 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $75 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $29 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.20 · official $196.20 (match) · 356 history records