Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9bd…4459 crypto 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$49 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%324W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$41
crypto 47% −$30
finance 1% −$6
other 0% −$11
politics 0% −$50
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 86% 3% -9.7%
≤30d 146 -2.9% -12.1% 88% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 292 -1.7% -11.1% 93% 1% -9.6%
all 347 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses324 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)347 / 357
History coverage220d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $201 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $160 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+99%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $55 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $40 in June? Jun 18 $0 $0 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Jun 17 $48 −$9 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 16 $0 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $185 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $275 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $301 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $108 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $501 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $299 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 09 $175 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $112 in June? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $301 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 07 $131 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $345 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $201 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $40 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $159 15h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? SELL No 74¢ $37 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 39h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 39h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $74 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $136 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $85 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $106 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? SELL No 89¢ $28 2d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? BUY No 90¢ $29 3d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $68 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.25 · official $696.25 (match) · 1048 history records