Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9be…1d98 politics 37 markets active 524d ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$286,872 (+259%) realized +$286,872 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,992per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% +$288,181
other 1% −$1,009
crypto 0% −$162
world 0% −$147
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 37 +70.3% +54.1% 46% 38% +224.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.1% 38% +224.9%
10% ← realistic here +39.3% 32% +193.8%
15% +25.9% 30% +165.4%
20% +13.5% 30% +139.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +259% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late +195% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,016 vs −$120 · ×141.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×120.27 per $1 lost it wins $120.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage183d
Avg bet$2,992
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 21 $774 −$130 -17%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jan 20 $21,713 +$176,507 +813%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Jan 20 $1,320 +$20,173 +1528%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 20 $3,989 +$21,138 +530%
AOC pregnant in 2024? Jan 02 $987 −$987 -100%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 01 $8,787 +$6,667 +76%
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State? Nov 12 $388 +$407 +105%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $4,355 +$1,533 +35%
Will Trump win 7 swing states? Nov 10 $3,161 +$6,493 +205%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 09 $6,325 +$10,312 +163%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $13,836 +$21,877 +158%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $21,631 +$13,243 +61%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $4,577 +$874 +19%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 26 $10,729 +$8,469 +79%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $5,425 +$406 +8%
Will Trump win 6 swing states? Oct 19 $340 +$5 +1%
Who will win the VP debate according to polls? Oct 09 $500 +$1,167 +233%
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Oct 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi? Oct 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL? Oct 06 $66 −$34 -52%
Will Biden finish his term? Oct 06 $214 −$147 -69%
Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Oct 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30? Oct 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Oct 03 $210 −$210 -100%
Donald & Melania Trump seen together in August? Oct 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Keir Starmer out as UK PM before October? Oct 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? Aug 22 $120 −$38 -32%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Aug 21 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September? Aug 19 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 06 $103 −$35 -34%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 31 $282 −$232 -82%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 26 $100 −$64 -64%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 25 $100 −$80 -80%
Kamala president by Friday? Jul 25 $72 −$61 -84%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 24 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 23 $100 −$47 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? SELL Yes $644 523d
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $186 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $333 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $106 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $124 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $100 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $5 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $771 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $375 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $1,000 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $1,440 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $196 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $60 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $79 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $4 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $1 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $220 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $1,049 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $2 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $808 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $586 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $160 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $0 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $26 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes $870 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes 11¢ $992 524d
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,020 524d
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,852 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 548 history records