Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D9 0xd9be…06f0 sports 87 markets active 10d ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$198 (-2%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$53
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$42
other 17% −$20
sports 9% −$69
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$53
finance 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 0% -23.6%
≤90d 47 +2.7% -7.1% 23% 13% -10.6%
all 86 -11.9% -20.3% 28% 22% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 22% -11.0%
10% -27.9% 21% -19.5%
15% -34.9% 21% -27.3%
20% -41.2% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 62
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage211d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $85 −$8 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$46 -94%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $671 −$3 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $64 −$25 -38%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 16 $14 +$9 +61%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 14 $10 +$5 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Wild vs. Panthers Apr 07 $8 +$6 +75%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $17 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $65 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $4 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $3 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $50 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $23 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $26 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $73 12d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $59 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $8 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 355 history records