Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c1…0205 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$8
other 19% −$2
sports 3% +$5
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 +3.3% -6.5% 21% 3% -9.1%
all 46 +1.7% -7.9% 20% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 2% -9.7%
10% -16.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage620d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $22 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $235 −$3 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $220 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $782 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 29d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $5 34d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 34d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 34d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 36d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 36d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $45 37d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.32 · official $34.32 (match) · 255 history records