Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c4…a723 crypto 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,207 (-9%) realized −$1,207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%51W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day63.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$1,425
14 days−$2,224
30 days−$2,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,376
other 33% −$1,224
world 3% −$388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.7% -25.5% 21% 21% -29.6%
≤30d 268 -27.7% -34.6% 19% 19% -29.9%
≤90d 268 -27.7% -34.6% 19% 19% -29.9%
all 268 -27.7% -34.6% 19% 19% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 19% -29.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 18% -36.6%
15% -46.6% 18% -42.8%
20% -51.8% 18% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$36 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses51 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage16d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day63.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions (202 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$120 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$50 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$56 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$39 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$32 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$50 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$628 +565%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $231 +$175 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $4,629 −$1,224 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$36 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$248 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$133 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $60 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1068 history records