Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c5…1cf3 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$24
14 days−$32
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 22% −$20
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$12
economics 7% −$4
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage137d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $178 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $722 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $373 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $151 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $399 −$3 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $228 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $347 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $491 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 52m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 5h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 9h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 14h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 19h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 23h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.26 · official $53.26 (match) · 1492 history records