Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c6…9dc1 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-7%) realized −$64 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$165
14 days−$204
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 33% -41.4%
≤30d 25 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 36% -37.4%
≤90d 25 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 36% -37.4%
all 25 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 36% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 36% -37.4%
10% -49.0% 32% -43.4%
15% -53.9% 32% -48.8%
20% -58.5% 28% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage21d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 58¢ 64¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $41 −$15 -37%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $61 −$15 -25%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $71 −$30 -42%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $30 +$35 +116%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $30 +$21 +69%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 +$21 +105%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$19 +64%
Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs MIR (+1.5) Jun 23 $43 −$42 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $37 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $30 +$11 +37%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$49 +120%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$26 +52%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $29 +$5 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $78 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 40¢ $15 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 31¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 33¢ $15 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $103 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 58¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 33¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 48¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 99¢ $91 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $30 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 42¢ $31 6h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $30 34h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 46¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 59¢ $30 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 2d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 60¢ $30 2d
Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs MIR (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 55¢ $43 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 28¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 62¢ $6 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 72¢ $30 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 55¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.15 · official $55.15 (match) · 47 history records